Market Update - 4.16.26
The prognosis had been cautiously optimistic about the local real estate market this year. But now …?
Last year, after the spring tariff turbulence, the market in the valley found traction in the late summer and fall. Pending residential sales rose in August to pre-Covid levels. This winter, following the strongest February in three years, it looked like this trend would continue into 2026.
But then the war in Iran started. Since then, macroeconomic predictions have trended downward and the (unmeasurable) sense of momentum in the local market has been lost.
Yes, there have been 7 pending residential sales in the first 15 days of April. If the market keeps up at this pace, April could portend well for the balance of the year.
Pending Residential Sales - Lake Chelan - 2016-2026
But that is a big “could” given the potential of increasing interest rates used to combat war-related inflation. And, as the graphs in this blog show – no surprise – the 30-year mortgage rate (which generally tracks with Fed rate movements), heavily influences sales in Lake Chelan.
The first graph shows the pending sales by month over the last ten years. It is easy to see the pre-COVID years in blue, the COVID years in yellow, and the post-COVID years in green.
The second graph shows 30-year mortgage rates over this same period.
30-year Mortgage Rates - 2016-2026
As expected, the two lines are near mirror opposites of each other. When rates fell during COVID, sales surged. And now, post-COVID, as rates have surged, sales have dropped.
All of this means, if you are a buyer, try to lock in a decent rate and look for properties that are priced right for these sober days. You could pick up a gem of a Lake Chelan property.
If you are a seller, continue to have patience and price aggressively downward if you absolutely must sell. And remember what my great-aunt, who had lived through the Depression, once told me, “Honey, this too, will pass.”
